Tuesday, November 26, 2019

hindsight

Just read a Forbes article about the apocalyptic media reporting about climate change. I've spent many hours reading and researching the issues trying to determine the truth. Depending on what "facts" you choose to believe, the planet may be 10-12 years from total ecological breakdown (major sea level rise, devastating weather related events like drought, floods, forest fires, hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes, extinction, plague...). Or not. The science and the politics of climate change is confusing and conflicted.

No doubt the impact of humans on the planet has been profound. Pollution, over-population, deforestation, sprawl, fracking. The environment must be protected and regulation is  obviously required. The regulation must be science based and must balance cost, global impact and the welfare of all life on the planet. It is a critical undertaking and demands our best minds to protect the environment. Politicizing the issues has not advanced the cause. Just the opposite.

In college I studied environmental science and drank the Earth Day Kool Aid. My professors convinced me that the earth was entering a new ice age because of human actions. And that the planet could not sustain a human population increase much above 3.7 billion level in 1970. As a result of pollution, starvation, poverty and disease the global population would crash the planet within decades.

Today, 50 years later, the prediction is for catastrophic global warming. Global life span has increased 20% on average. The population is 7.7 billion and rising. And global poverty rates have decreased 78% in that time frame. How could the predictions have been so wrong?

No doubt technology, science and public policy changed the predicted outcomes. So did the cycle of the sun.

I remember preaching the impending Population Bomb to my parents one summer break. I told them that, in light of the impending doom, having children was unethical, immoral. My father was alarmed at my anxiety and my world view. He said, "Calm down, son. I would give you a Valium if I had one. It's going to be ok."

He was right. The world did not end. And it will not end any time soon (baring cataclysmic meteor strikes or self destructive atomic war). Technology and science continues to advance at exponential rates. Nuclear fusion will eventually replace burning carbon for fuel and resolve the CO2 question. Energy from the sun will wax and wane and the earth will warm and cool. And humankind will adjust and adapt as it always has.

And the media and the politicians will continue to terrorize us with sensational claims in order to advance their agendas, their power and their coffers. I think what bothers me most is the degree to which science has been corrupted by politics and self interests. It's discouraging.

Wish I had a Valium...